RICK TOONE

Even if you're not a professional marketer, Seth Godin's blog is interesting reading. I enjoy it because he is one of the few people who asks Socratic questions. I can't resist responding to his post about housing value, because it is a frequent topic of conversation over morning coffee with Tricia. Let's start simple.

What is a house?

A house is a box.

1. That box provides shelter from the elements
2. That box provides a psychological center for social interaction, self-expression, comfort, and safety

3. That box is a status symbol

4. That box is a school system ticket to your child's future

Given Seth's hypothesis, how can we expect housing markets to change?

1. Shelter — I have extensive experience in shelter construction, in styles from 1740 to 2007. Most modern homes are not worth the cost of materials. McMansion workmanship is embarrassingly poor. Designs are not energy efficient or ergonomic. When faced with weather pattern changes, or a restructuring of supply lines (fuel/power/food), my evaluation is modern homes in sprawling suburbs are marginally viable only if there are zero changes to our currently unsustainable western industrialized lifestyle. Take a moment to evaluate your home from this perspective: if you no longer had access to fossil fuel-based heating, electricity for air-conditioning, lighting, cooking, or refrigeration...how would it rate? When you realize homes built in the 1740s efficiently address those concerns, you realize how far out on a limb our society is perched.

2. Psychological/safety —

a) Social interaction...any gathering place from a campfire to a TV, will suffice.
b) Self-expression...rock paintings on cliff dwellings to custom kitchens with cherry cabinets and granite countertops, will suffice.

c) Comfort...see "Shelter" above.

d) Safety...if your food is shipped from 1,500 miles away, by fossil fuel > if your ability to heat your home is dependent upon global oil transport > if your ability to remain in your home is based upon the necessity of driving in your gasoline-powered vehicle 45 minutes to a job > how safe are you? How self-reliant are you?

3. Status — I would hypothesize 80% of our housing efforts are directed toward status. Style. Facade. Neighborhood. Do you have dedicated rooms "for visitors," that you normally don't use? Are our friends or neighbors really impressed by our displays of wealth? Are you, by theirs?

4. School system — Schools are assigned by zip code. Pay the big money for the wealthy neighborhood, and your kid goes to a great public school. Live in a questionable neighborhood, and your child is thrown in with the unwashed poor. Or so goes conventional thinking. But. What materialistic pressures are your children's peers pushing? What is the drug use rate in your school system? What are you doing — every day — to personally challenge and foster the growth of your child? Or are you just using electronic babysitters and modeling consumerism? Were Abraham Lincoln's parents obsessed with his local school system?

Here's my prediction. Within 10 years, our American society will face dramatic change. Restructuring of food supply lines. Energy supply lines. Transportation supply lines. We will be pushed toward sustainability by global competition for limited resources. Populations in China and India outnumber us 10:1 and growing exponentially. And they want our materialistic lifestyle. Russia, Venezuela, (and Africa) hold the oil cards. They will bid for superpower status. Superpowers will continue to plunder Africa.

Because our U.S. population is growing, and will double in our lifetime, the demand for housing will not lessen. But the criteria we use to evaluate shelter will change, affecting markets as a result.

As a continent, we need to become self-reliant.